Financial model
Willow Creek Ranch · 3 ranches3 scenarios loaded
Model vs actuals · 2026 YTD
Active scenario: Finishing and cow-calf 2026, base scenario (since 2026-01-01)
| Variable | Model | Actuals 2026 YTD | Δ% |
|---|---|---|---|
ADG lb/day Actual = average daily gain from this year's weighings | 1.76 lb/day | 1.63 lb/day | ▼ 7.5 % |
Buy price $/cwt Actual = total purchase cost / pounds bought | $156.49 | $161.93 | ▲ 3.5 % |
Sell price $/cwt Actual = net sales / pounds sold | $181.44 | $185.07 | ▲ 2.0 % |
Monthly OPEX Actual = year expenses without CAPEX / months elapsed | $3,750.00 | $3,833.00 | ▲ 2.2 % |
Annual mortality Actual = deaths this year / average head count | 1.5 % | 1.4 % | ▼ 6.7 % |
Total hectares Actual = sum of hectares across the ranches | 640 ha | 640 ha | ≈0% |
All scenarios
| Name | Effective dates | Expected ADG | Sell price ($/cwt) | Monthly OPEX | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finishing and cow-calf 2026, base scenario | 2026-01-01 → current | 1.76 lb/day | $181.44 | $3,750 | Active |
| Conservative, low prices | 2025-07-01 → 2025-12-31 | 1.59 lb/day | $172.37 | $4,000 | — |
| Optimistic, intensive finishing | 2025-01-01 → 2025-06-30 | 1.98 lb/day | $190.51 | $3,550 | — |
Projection and returns · 5 years
Simplified DCF of the active scenario (steady state).
NPV @ 14% WACC
$109,300
IRR
94.3%
Initial CAPEX $45,000
Estimated volume
430 head/yr
Cycle ~313 days
| Year | Cattle revenue | Cattle cost | OPEX | Net cash flow | Discounted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $808,400 | −$326,370 | −$45,000 | $41,900 | $36,800 |
| 2027 | $848,800 | −$342,700 | −$47,700 | $43,500 | $33,500 |
| 2028 | $891,300 | −$359,800 | −$50,600 | $45,000 | $30,400 |
| 2029 | $935,800 | −$377,800 | −$53,600 | $46,600 | $27,600 |
| 2030 | $982,600 | −$396,700 | −$56,800 | $50,100 | $26,000 |
Approximate model: volume = stocking rate × hectares × cycles/year (cycle = (finish weight − entry)/ADG) × (1 − mortality), steady state (purchases = sales). Prices grow with cattle price growth and OPEX with inflation. NPV discounts at the WACC and IRR is computed on net cash flows minus CAPEX.
NPV sensitivity (±15% per assumption)
NPV range when each assumption moves ±15%, sorted by impact. The top one drives returns the most.
Notes: the active scenario is the most recent one in effect. Actuals = from January 1 to the close of the selected year (or through today for the current year). OPEX excludes CAPEX. The NPV/IRR projection uses a simplified DCF model (see the note on its card).
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